Prepared by Chief | March 18, 2026 at 10:45 AM PST
Live API data pulled from Kalshi · Actual prices, volumes, and resolved outcomes
Every Kalshi market is a yes/no question. You buy a contract for some amount between $0.01 and $0.99. If you're right, the contract pays out $1.00. If you're wrong, it pays $0.00.
Bid vs Ask: Like any market, there's a bid (highest someone will pay) and an ask (lowest someone will sell for). The "spread" between them is where market makers profit. As a trader, you can either:
Kalshi breaks this into six brackets. Each bracket is a separate yes/no market. Only ONE bracket can resolve YES — the others all resolve NO.
| Bracket | YES Bid | YES Ask | Implied Prob | Volume | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42°F or below | $0.20 | $0.23 | ~21% | 1,594 | Unlikely but possible cold snap |
| 43° to 44° | $0.29 | $0.31 | ~30% | 1,282 | 🎯 Market favorite (tied) |
| 45° to 46° | $0.28 | $0.30 | ~29% | 843 | 🎯 Market favorite (tied) |
| 47° to 48° | $0.12 | $0.15 | ~13% | 186 | Warmer than expected |
| 49° to 50° | $0.04 | $0.05 | ~4% | 116 | Long shot |
| 51°F or above | $0.03 | $0.04 | ~3% | 717 | Very unlikely |
Notice the prices roughly sum to $1.00 (~$0.97-1.03 in this case). That's because exactly one bracket will win. The small deviation from $1.00 is the market's built-in edge (vig).
High: 45°F — Mostly sunny, southeast wind 3 to 10 mph.
Current temp at Central Park right now (10:51 AM ET): 33.1°F and clear.
The NWS says 45°F. That falls in the 45°-46° bracket, which the market is pricing at $0.28-0.30 (29% implied probability). But wait — the NWS forecast of exactly 45° is the point estimate. If we look at multiple weather models, the actual high could be anywhere from 42-48°F. So the market is distributing probability across those brackets.
Scenario: You check GFS, HRRR, and NAM weather models. All three converge on 44-45°F for tomorrow's high. You believe the 43°-44° bracket has a ~40% probability, but the market only prices it at $0.29-0.31 (30%). You see an edge of ~10 points.
The trade:
If the actual high is 43° or 44°F:
If the actual high is anything else (42° or below, 45°+):
Expected value (if your 40% estimate is right):
(0.40 × $6.75) - (0.60 × $3.25) = $2.70 - $1.95 = +$0.75 per cycle
Here's what weather markets look like across five cities, all for March 19. Same mechanics, different temperature ranges:
| Bracket | YES Bid/Ask | Implied Prob | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or below | $0.21 / $0.22 | ~21% | 1,021 |
| 48° to 49° | $0.15 / $0.16 | ~16% | 690 |
| 50° to 51° | $0.19 / $0.21 | ~20% | 577 |
| 52° to 53° | $0.18 / $0.21 | ~19% | 598 |
| 54° to 55° | $0.11 / $0.14 | ~12% | 424 |
| 56° or above | $0.12 / $0.13 | ~12% | 1,123 |
Notice: Chicago's distribution is flatter — more uncertainty. No single bracket above 22%. The 56°+ bracket has the highest volume (1,123) despite only 12% probability — people like betting on warm outliers.
| Bracket | YES Bid/Ask | Implied Prob | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72° or below | $0.02 / $0.03 | ~2% | 1,398 |
| 73° to 74° | $0.11 / $0.13 | ~12% | 1,512 |
| 75° to 76° | $0.23 / $0.24 | ~24% | 1,425 |
| 77° to 78° | $0.41 / $0.47 | ~44% 🎯 | 2,761 |
| 79° to 80° | $0.09 / $0.11 | ~10% | 686 |
| 81° or above | $0.08 / $0.09 | ~8% | 966 |
Miami's market is more concentrated — 77-78° is the heavy favorite at 44%. Notice the wide bid-ask spread ($0.41-$0.47 = 6¢ spread). That's a market-making opportunity right there: if you're willing to post a limit order at $0.43, you'd be providing liquidity in that gap.
| Bracket | YES Bid/Ask | Implied Prob | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82° or below | $0.13 / $0.14 | ~13% | 720 |
| 83° to 84° | $0.14 / $0.15 | ~14% | 112 |
| 85° to 86° | $0.30 / $0.33 | ~31% | 297 |
| 87° to 88° | $0.25 / $0.29 | ~27% | 205 |
| 89° to 90° | $0.07 / $0.09 | ~8% | 51 |
| 91° or above | $0.04 / $0.08 | ~6% | 662 |
Austin is mid-80s in March — much different range. The 89-90° bracket has only 51 contracts traded — extremely thin liquidity. This is where you might struggle to get fills but also where mispricings hide.
This market has resolved. The NWS reported the high was 57-58°F. Let's see what happened:
| Bracket | Result | Final Price | Volume | If You Bought at Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° to 58° | ✅ YES | $0.99 | 95,328 | Paid out $1.00 per contract |
| 56° or below | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 42,434 | Paid out $0.00 |
| 59° to 60° | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 62,520 | Paid out $0.00 |
| 61° to 62° | ❌ NO | $0.02 | 45,602 | Paid out $0.00 |
| 63° to 64° | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 25,636 | Paid out $0.00 |
| 65° or above | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 25,713 | Paid out $0.00 |
Total volume across all brackets: 297,233 contracts. That's roughly $100K+ in notional trading on a single day's NYC temperature. Not massive, but decent for a niche market.
The high was 48°F (we confirmed via NWS station data). The brackets:
| Bracket | Result | Final Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55° or below | ✅ YES | $0.99 | 36,924 |
| 56° to 57° | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 24,259 |
| 58° to 59° | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 14,969 |
| 60° to 61° | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 9,490 |
| 62° to 63° | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 9,923 |
| 64° or above | ❌ NO | $0.01 | 10,462 |
Interesting — the actual high was 48°F, well below the lowest individual bracket (55°). The "55° or below" bracket won easily. The brackets are set high because last week was warmer in NYC.
Let's say yesterday's market opened with "55° or below" priced at $0.30 (the market expected warmer weather). You checked weather models and saw a cold front coming — your model said 75% chance the high stays under 55°F.
Now imagine doing this across 5 cities every day with a weather model that's right 60% of the time...
Here's the lifecycle of a weather market — this is identical for tomorrow's NYC market:
| Time | What Happens |
|---|---|
| 10:00 AM ET, Day Before (Today, Mar 18) |
Market opens. Six brackets appear with initial prices. Trading begins. This is when early-bird traders with weather model data place first bets. |
| All Day (Mar 18-19) |
Trading continues. Prices move as weather models update (GFS runs at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z). New data → price adjustments. You can buy or sell contracts at any time. |
| During the day (Mar 19) |
As actual hourly temps come in from Central Park, prices converge rapidly. If it's 2 PM and the temp has already hit 46°, the "45-46°" and "47-48°" brackets spike in price while lower brackets crash. |
| 11:59 PM ET (Mar 19) |
Last trading time. No more orders after this. The highest temp of the day is essentially known by now. |
| 7-8 AM ET, Day After (Mar 20) |
NWS publishes the official Daily Climatological Report for Central Park. The winning bracket's contracts pay $1.00; all others pay $0.00. Settlement is automatic. |
Weather is just one category. Here's what else is trading right now:
With recent Vatican news, this market is active. It works the same way — each candidate has a YES/NO market:
| Candidate (Ticker Suffix) | YES Price | Volume | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPAR (Pietro Parolin) | $0.10 – $0.15 | 4,065 | Market gives ~12% chance |
| LANT (Luis Antonio Tagle) | $0.07 – $0.13 | 1,059 | Market gives ~10% chance |
| PERD (Other candidates) | $0.01 – $0.04 | 1,880 | Long shots at 1-4% |
| RLEO | $0.01 – $0.04 | 2,439 | Long shot |
| MZUP | $0.01 – $0.04 | 1,997 | Long shot |
This is a longer-dated market (resolves before 2035). Prices move slowly based on Vatican news. The edge here is being a close watcher of Catholic Church politics — if you see a frontrunner emerging before the crowd, you buy early.
Active economics markets on Kalshi right now:
The CPI/Jobs/GDP markets are the most relevant for our data-driven approach, but they're episodic — they only appear around release dates. We'd need to watch for when they launch and be ready to trade immediately.
March Madness is exploding right now — that's where most of the volume is. Sports markets work the same way but with game outcomes, player props, and parlays. NCAA tournament brackets, NBA game outcomes, Champions League matches. The multi-leg parlay markets (KXMVE* tickers we saw) are complex combo bets.
On a CPI release week, the bot also monitors economic leading indicators, places positions on CPI brackets 3-5 days before the release, and adjusts as new data comes in.
Report prepared by Chief | Live Kalshi Examples | March 18, 2026
Data source: Kalshi Public API (api.elections.kalshi.com) + NWS API (api.weather.gov)
All prices and volumes are real, pulled at ~10:45 AM PST March 18, 2026
This report is for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Prediction market trading involves real risk of loss.